AAuril
Auril · crypto trading insights

Get early entries and start maximizing your profit

Auril is the research tool traders keep open next to their trading app, whether that's Axiom, GMGN, FOMO, Photon, BullX or straight from Phantom. It scans hundreds of Solana tokens every 10 seconds, filters out unsafe tokens and empty hype, and shows you which coins have a real setup right now, with the entry, the stop and the sell time ready to use.

Built by a new generation of traders and programmers to be as current as possible, together with future quants working on the best strategies for every coin. We start with memecoins because their popularity grows month after month, and that's where a trader most needs verified data instead of rumors. For a steadier approach, you can also study tested trading strategies on safer, more established coins like Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana.

Start scanning memecoins Strategies for Bitcoin and altcoins
1 · Our focus right now

Memecoin radar

Live verdicts on Solana memecoins, with a stop and how long to hold, browser notifications for when to enter trades, and a CA scanner.

Open the radar → 2

Forex & DAX signals

EUR/USD and the DAX 40: seven strategies tested on every trading day since 1990, and what the best one says today, with a stop and a position size.

See today's signal → 3

Crypto strategies

Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana and seven more coins: seven strategies tested on each coin's full history, and what each strategy says today.

See the strategies → 4

Today's news

Seven newsrooms read in parallel and grouped by story: a story covered by eight outlets is news, one written by a single blog is an opinion.

Read the news →

Results

Some of the recent calls so far, replayed on real prices

AAuril
$HopeRadar call · Nov 10, 18:39 UTC · bounce
+$380.33
+190.2%
Bought
$200.00
Sold
$580.33
Held
4h 00m
Exit
Sold at 4 h
auril.trade · enter nowChart ↗
AAuril
$HOOKEDRadar call · Oct 24, 14:09 UTC · score 81
+$132.55
+66.3%
Bought
$200.00
Sold
$332.55
Held
4h 30m
Exit
Trailing stop
auril.trade · enter nowChart ↗
AAuril
$ANTRadar call · Nov 10, 18:10 UTC · bounce
+$70.60
+35.3%
Bought
$200.00
Sold
$270.60
Held
4h 00m
Exit
Sold at 4 h
auril.trade · enter nowChart ↗
AAuril
$THUGRadar call · Nov 10, 18:35 UTC · bounce
+$59.35
+29.7%
Bought
$200.00
Sold
$259.35
Held
4h 00m
Exit
Sold at 4 h
auril.trade · enter nowChart ↗

Some of the results among 113 "enter now" and hype calls the radar logged; others closed at their stop. Each result follows the signal's own stop, targets and time limit on 5-minute candles, on a $200 example position, with 3% fees and slippage already subtracted. Past calls don't predict the next one. Members see every signal and how it ended →

Send us your results!

Traded one of the radar's calls? Send your PnL card from Axiom, GMGN or any trading app, with the coin's name, to and it could be featured here.

Send your PnL →

A look inside

What each section shows once you have an account

1 · Memecoin radar

Know when to enter, and when to get out

  • Enter now, almost or not now on every token, with every condition checked and shown
  • Entries only in the setup that held up in testing: a sharp drop while the whole memecoin market is being sold
  • Hype calls on brand-new coins the moment they take off, flagged high risk and measured live
  • An exit plan with a clock: a catastrophe stop and a fixed sell time, so you never hold on hope
  • Instant alerts with sound and notifications when a coin is ready, plus a CA scanner for any token you find
Open the radar →
2 · Forex & DAX

A clear long, short or wait on EUR/USD and the DAX

  • Seven strategies tested on every trading day since 1990, after spread and overnight costs
  • The strategy to follow is chosen on 1990–2015 and judged on the years it never saw
  • A ticket when it's in a trade: entry, protective stop and the size that risks 1% of your budget
See today's signal →
3 · Crypto strategies

Ride the trend on Bitcoin and the majors

  • Seven strategies tested on the full history of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana and seven more coins
  • For each coin, the strategy to follow and whether to be in the coin or in cash today
  • The exact price level that changes the decision, plus DCA and a live simulator
See the strategies →
4 · Today's news

Follow the narratives moving the market

  • Seven newsrooms read in parallel and grouped by story
  • Ranked by how many outlets cover each story, so news stands out from opinion
  • Filters by coin and topic, plus the Fear & Greed Index
Read the news →
● Live · popular in the crypto press
  • Loading…

Why traders use Auril

Tested on millions of candles

Every radar rule was tested on millions of candles and on signals recorded in real time. Whatever failed the test was removed, even if it sounded good.

Every signal tracked

Every "enter now" signal is recorded with its price, stop and exit plan, and then we measure what happened next. That score is a record, not a promise.

Real costs included

Platform fees, network fees and slippage are subtracted from every result. A test without costs isn't optimistic, it's meaningless.

No hype, honest numbers

We show how often each strategy worked, after costs. When the market offers nothing, the radar says "don't enter", and your capital stays ready for the next real setup.

Auril FAQ

What is Auril?

Auril is a crypto trading research platform. Its memecoin radar scans hundreds of Solana tokens every 10 seconds and gives each one a clear verdict (enter now, almost or not now) with the entry, the stop and exactly when to sell. Auril also tests trading strategies on Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana and seven more coins, gives daily signals for EUR/USD and the DAX, and gathers the day's crypto news in one place.

Does Auril give signals for EUR/USD and the DAX?

Yes. Seven classic strategies are tested on every trading day since 1990, after spread and overnight costs, and the page shows what the best one says today: long, short or wait, with an entry, a protective stop and a position size. The strategy to follow is chosen on 1990–2015 and judged on 2016–today, so you see how it did on years it never saw.

Which trading apps does Auril work with?

Any of them. Traders use Auril next to Axiom, GMGN, FOMO, Photon, BullX or straight from Phantom. Every coin card links to Axiom, GMGN and DexScreener and has a one-click "Copy CA" button.

How much does Auril cost?

An Auril account is €9.99 per month and you can cancel anytime. The home page, with live prices, the Fear & Greed Index and the top crypto headlines, stays free.

Is it Monesy or Auril?

It's Auril, spelled with two y's, at auril.trade. If you searched for Monesy trading or Monesy crypto, you're in the right place: Auril is the crypto trading insights platform with the Solana memecoin radar. It isn't related to any gamer or esports team with a similar name.

1

Memecoin radar

Solana · straight verdicts, for any trading app

Searches Jupiter, DexScreener, GeckoTerminal, CoinGecko and the press, checks every token's safety and gives a verdict. Press the button to start.

What the list below is, and what it isn't. A research result, not investment advice. On average memecoins lose money from one hour to the next: entering any liquid token from the rankings at a random moment lost 3–4% per trade after costs in our tests, whatever the exit. The radar gives "enter now" in one situation only, the one that held up when we measured it: a token at least seven days old drops 15% or more in an hour while the whole memecoin market is being sold. Even there the result is an average over many trades, carried by a few big rebounds; about half of them lose. Most of the time the right answer is "no entry".

No research run yet. Press "Run the research".

History of "enter now" signals and what happened next

No "enter now" signal recorded yet.

WhenTokenScoreEntryStopResultHow it ended
How to use the radar (verdict, ticket, watching)

What the "Run the research" button does

It restarts the whole chain from scratch: queries the sources again, recomputes the scores at this second's price and rewrites the list. Trending lists and safety reports are cached briefly (from 20 seconds to 5 minutes) so fast refreshing doesn't burn through the sources' limits; prices and candles are always fresh. The first run takes 10–25 seconds, later ones much less.

Checking a coin you found yourself

Paste a token's contract address (CA) into "Check a coin" and the radar runs that one token through the same chain: the hard filters, the RugCheck safety report, Jupiter's holder and trader data, the price candles and the press. You get the same card, verdict and ticket as a token from the list. The only difference: a coin that fails the hard filters isn't hidden, the card says exactly which filter it fails. The verdict uses the market reading from the radar's last run, so the check waits for the first run to finish. Checked coins aren't added to the signal log.

Auto-refresh and notifications

With "Auto-refresh (10s)" ticked, the page presses the button by itself every 10 seconds while you stay on the radar; if a run hasn't finished yet, it waits for it. Press "Turn on notifications" once and you get a test notification right away. From then on, every time a new token gets the "enter now" verdict you get a system notification with its symbol, entry, stop and sell time. Keep the radar open in a tab: with notifications or sound on, it keeps scanning while you're in another tab or in your trading app (the browser slows hidden tabs down to about one scan a minute). Clicking the notification brings you back to the token's card. With "Sound alert" ticked, the page also plays a short chime when a new token gets "enter now", even from a background tab; the browser only allows sound after you've clicked somewhere on the page once. A token that has alerted you isn't announced again until you reload the page. Phones can't show these notifications: on Android the button says so, and on iPhone the browser doesn't offer them.

The verdict: "enter now", "almost" or "no"

Every token gets one of three verdicts, and every condition stays visible under "Verdict conditions", with its threshold. A verdict you can't recompute by hand isn't a verdict, it's an opinion.

  1. Enter now: the capitulation-bounce setup is complete and every safety condition passes. The card gives you the full ticket: entry price, stop, position size and the exact time to sell.
  2. Almost: safety passes and the setup is one step away: the market is close to a selloff (−0.5% to −1% over 6 hours), or the token has already dropped 10–15%. Run the radar again in 15 minutes; if it's still not complete, drop it.
  3. Not now: a safety condition fails, or the token simply isn't in a capitulation. That includes very good-looking tokens: outside this setup, entering lost money in every test we ran.

The setup (all four together): the large memecoins, read from the most-traded rankings, are down at least 1% over 6 hours (median), so the whole market is being sold; this token's price is at least 15% below where it was an hour ago; it hadn't pumped before the drop (less than 30% above its 6-hour low); and it's still actively traded ($50,000 in 24 hours, trades in at least half of the last hour's 5-minute candles). The non-negotiable safety conditions: safety above 0.70, authenticity above 0.60, at least seven days since launch (and not migrated in the last three hours), and liquidity that isn't being pulled (not down 30% in the last hour).

Safer calls and the order to take them. A call on a token over seven days old that trades at least $300,000 in 24 hours is marked safer call: on 135 past calls like it, 7% lost more than 20%, against 10% for all calls and 23% for tokens 2–7 days old. It doesn't win more often (46%); it loses big less often. When more than three calls are live, the radar numbers them by the size of the drop, deepest first: with the three-position limit, that order did better than a random pick in every period we tested. The score is not a safety rating. It rates the token (liquidity, holders, activity, safety checks), not the trade: the old rule's 80+ calls made money 36% of the time, and every winner since November 8 scored between 21 and 48.

Why a drop, and why only in a falling market. We followed over 800 tokens from the moment the radar first saw them, so tokens that later died are included, and tried hundreds of entry rules. Every rule that bought strength (rising holders, buying pressure, a price climbing over its averages) lost more than buying at random. The one family that held up was the opposite: a sharp drop during a market-wide selloff, when panic and forced selling push prices below where they settle a few hours later. The same drop in a calm market lost 4.3% on average; during a selloff it gained.

"None right now" will often be the answer, and that's correct. Selloffs come a few times a week. If the page produced a recommendation on every run, it would be making up signals to look useful.

The trade ticket: a stop and a clock

  1. Buy at market and right away put a stop 30% below your entry in your trading app. It's a catastrophe stop, there for rugs; tighter stops cut the rebounds that make the result, and lowered it in every test.
  2. Don't take profit early. Every take-profit ladder we tested lowered the average: the gain comes from the few trades that rebound 30%, 60% or more, and a ladder sells those too early.
  3. At the 4-hour mark, sell everything, up or down. The card shows the exact time. Holding longer lost money in every test.
  4. One exception while you hold: if the pool's liquidity falls by a third, sell at once. That's liquidity being pulled, not a dip.

Position size: with a 30% stop, risking 1% of your budget means a position of about 3.3% of it. Signals come in groups during a selloff and fall or rebound together, so hold at most three at once.

What "Watch" means on each card

Only an "almost" card has a real window, and it's short: 15 minutes, with the missing condition named. When it ends there are two outcomes, never a third:

  1. Enter: the next run gives "enter now"; you follow the ticket.
  2. Drop: it's still not complete, or liquidity fell by a third. A bounce setup that doesn't form quickly isn't one.

Every other card says "nothing to watch now". You don't need to sit by those: the radar keeps checking them and alerts you if one turns into a setup.

Hype calls: high risk, high potential

Separate from "enter now", the radar flags brand-new coins that are taking off right now: launched in the last 12 hours, holders and price still climbing over the last 5 minutes, at least $20,000 of liquidity across all pools, no paid DexScreener promotion, basic safety passed, and seen by the radar for the first time in the last 15 minutes. These get their own amber card and alert.

What the data says. Young coins in general were a disaster to buy (about −16% four hours after the radar saw them), and the ones already fading at that moment lost 10–24% whatever the exit. In an early replay, the ones still running when first seen did well, but that version counted a coin as "new" too loosely (after a restart, everything looked new). Live, since November 8, 1 of the first 5 calls ended in profit, −29% on average, most of them stopped out within hours. The rule is now stricter (a coin only counts as new if the radar was scanning just before and it wasn't there), and hype calls are paper trades only until at least 20 live calls have been measured.

  1. Act within the card's window (5 minutes) and never above the "don't pay above" price. A missed hype call is a skipped one, not a later entry.
  2. Set at once: stop −35%, sell half at +50% and then move the stop to your entry, sell the rest at 3x, and sell anything left after 24 hours.
  3. 1% of your budget per call, at most two at once. These are lottery tickets: size them so that a run of stops costs you little.

News and influencers. The radar reads what the world is searching for and reading right now (Google Trends, Google News top stories, the crypto press), searches DexScreener for new Solana tokens named after those topics, and marks any token whose name matches with "Trending now". It also shows the X account a token links to and its follower count. Neither changes a verdict yet: we couldn't test them on past data (there's no free history of X), so the collector records them on every scan and they'll be measured before they count. A large X account linked to a new coin is often an impersonation: check on X that the account itself posted the contract address.

The radar measures itself, and can pause itself

The local version runs a collector that records every candidate every 15 minutes and later replays the radar's exact rules on what happened next. That measured result is shown on the page next to the study numbers. If the last 20 measured signals average worse than −5% after costs (−15% for hype calls, which swing much more), the radar pauses its own entries: setups still show, as "almost (paused)", until the measured results recover. A rule that worked for two weeks can stop working; this is how you find out from the radar, not from your account.

How the score is calculated

The score orders the list and describes the token; it doesn't decide the verdict. High-scoring tokens did no better than random entries in our tests, so a high score alone is never a reason to buy. The safety and authenticity parts of it do feed the verdict.

score = quality (0-100) × safety (0-1) × authenticity (0-1) × timing (0-1)

Quality adds up eight components: adoption (how many new holders appear per hour), participation (how many unique traders), maturity, liquidity, a move with no vertical, buying pressure, volume that's lively but not frantic, and declared presence. All of them are visible, with their points, under "Why this score". Where the tests showed that "more" turns bad (holders growing by over 3% an hour, over 400 traders an hour, volume above liquidity), the points drop again after a peak.

The other three are multipliers, not penalties. A token with unsecured liquidity isn't "a bit weaker", it's untradeable, and a ten-point deduction would leave it at the top of the list.

  1. Safety: from the RugCheck report (locked liquidity, revoked authorities, transfer fee, concentration in the top ten wallets, how much the creator holds, linked wallets), completed with Jupiter's audit and the creator's history: someone who has launched thousands of tokens is a factory, not a project. It also counts how much of the supply sits with bundled wallets, snipers, insiders and the creator: when a few hands hold a large share, a "capitulation" can simply be them leaving.
  2. Authenticity: two independent measures: how much price a dollar of volume moves (money passed around in circles moves nothing), and Jupiter's organic score, which tracks wallets one by one and separates bots from people.
  3. Timing: hype signals lower the multiplier: a vertical move in the last hour, a wave of new holders, volume above liquidity, a launch a few minutes old.

What changed on November 8, and why

Version 3 gave "enter now" to tokens with steadily growing holders, many unique traders and more buys than sells. Its 85 signals, replayed on the candles that followed each one, ended in profit 25% of the time at −7.2% per trade, worse than entering the same kind of tokens at random (−3.2%): rising adoption and buying pressure mark the moment of peak attention, right before the fall. Version 4 turns this around and only enters in the capitulation setup above.

What it showed, honestly: +4.6% per trade on the two weeks the rule was chosen on (385 signals, 51% in profit), and less on data the choice never saw: +1.3% on 151 signals with the live market reading, while random entries in the same hours lost 4.1%. On November 12 we re-ran it on the whole market (1,101 tokens, October 23 to November 11): tokens 2–7 days old averaged +0.9% with 23% big losses, tokens over seven days +3.0% on 471 signals with 10%, so the minimum age went up to seven days. The gap to random is the solid part; the size of the gain is still uncertain, which is why the radar keeps measuring itself (above).

Before version 3, the radar rewarded acceleration: exploding volume, a curve climbing faster and faster, buying in the bottom third of the hourly range. We tested it in two ways:

  1. On history: 235 memecoins × 17 days of 5-minute candles (2.7 million candles), entering at the open of the candle after the signal, with 3% costs. The old rule won 25% of the time, at −3.5% per trade: worse than entering at random on the same tokens (−2.2%). Acceleration, curve shape and position in the range predicted nothing.
  2. Forward, in real time: every candidate recorded at the moment of the scan, with the result measured hours later, so without knowing in advance which ones survive. The hype signals were exactly what came before the biggest drops: +30% in the last hour (−28% over the next three hours), volume above liquidity (−27%), tokens under three hours old (almost −50%). The best were tokens 2–7 days old with steadily growing holders.

That led to version 3's adoption grid, which the measurements above then retired. Signals from earlier rules stay in the history, marked "old rule".

What the platform checks, and what's left for you

The RugCheck report and the Jupiter audit are requested automatically for every finalist, so the basic safety checks are already done. What's left to do in your trading app before any entry:

  1. Confirm the verdict is current. If you're looking at a list from twenty minutes ago, run it again.
  2. Look at the real chart. A capitulation is supposed to look like a falling knife; what you're checking for is a rug: a single giant sell from one wallet, or the pool's liquidity collapsing along with the price. If you see either, don't enter.
  3. Check the slippage for your size. Total liquidity doesn't tell you what your order costs.
  4. Read the community. A dead channel or an X account with three posts doesn't show up in any number here.

What the platform can't see

There's no live Twitter/X feed, because there's no free API for it, so "declared presence" means the links the project put up, not how much it posts. The press is read from seven sources and matched strictly by symbol and by the distinctive words in the name, but a three-hour-old token can't appear in the press: no news isn't a negative signal.

Candles come from Jupiter's charts, and where Jupiter doesn't respond, from GeckoTerminal. The Jupiter chart endpoint is the one jup.ag uses, not a publicly documented one: if it changes, the radar automatically falls back to GeckoTerminal, which is slower.

And most important: the score describes the present, not the future.

The memecoin trading strategy (9 rules)

Rule 0: the maths everything else rests on

Memecoin returns follow an extreme distribution: most positions lose, a few break even, and one or two make all the difference. The consequence decides everything: you don't win by picking better, you win by surviving until the ones that work. That's why the sizing and exit rules matter more than any entry filter, including the verdict on this page.

Rule 1: position size is decided before the trade, not during it

Set a total budget that you're willing to lose entirely. On each position you risk about 1% of it; the ticket calculates that from the distance to the stop. The size doesn't grow because a token "looks really good". They all look really good beforehand.

Rule 2: the safety filter is binary

Safety checks aren't negotiable and don't offset each other. One missing item = move on. The cost of missing a good move is zero; the cost of entering a rug is the whole position.

Rule 3: never on the vertical candle

The most expensive mistake is buying a token that just did +100% in an hour. Whoever was going to buy has already bought; you are the liquidity they sell into. In our test, tokens up more than 30% in the last hour lost 28% on average over the next three hours. That's why "enter now" is never given on a vertical move.

Rule 4: the exit is the clock. The one rule you never break

The ticket gives you a sell time, four hours after entry. At that time you sell everything, mechanically, whether it's up 40% or down 20%, without asking whether it "still has potential". In our tests holding longer lost money every time, and selling early at a profit target lowered the average too: the result comes from letting the few big rebounds play out inside the window, and from not letting the rest drift.

Rule 5: write the invalidation before you enter

The stop on the ticket goes into your trading app at the same moment as the entry. When it's hit, get out fully and immediately. And the absolute corollary: never average down on a memecoin. The radar's entry is a drop, but only one drop, in one specific situation (a market-wide selloff); the same drop in a calm market lost 4% on average in our tests. Buying more because it fell further is not the setup, it's a second bet on the same coin.

Rule 6: costs are higher than you think

A round trip adds up the trading app's fee (around 1% on each side on Axiom, Photon or GMGN), the priority fee and, most expensive of all, slippage. Hence the 3% in costs subtracted from every result measured here, the $15,000 liquidity threshold for the list and $50,000 of daily volume for a verdict. During a selloff spreads widen: if you need huge slippage to get in, the token is too thin for your size.

Rule 7: the time of day matters

Real memecoin volume follows the US session. In low-liquidity hours, moves are easier for a few wallets to fake, and getting out costs more. Check the number of unique traders on the card, not just the volume.

Rule 8: the journal

The platform keeps its own journal, but yours matters just as much: the score and verdict at entry, the actual execution, what you sold at each step and the result. After 30 positions you'll know under what conditions it works for you, with your real execution.

The six mistakes that empty accounts

  1. Buying the green candle.
  2. Holding past the sell time.
  3. Averaging down.
  4. Sizing up after a win. The distribution didn't change; only your exposure did.
  5. Skipping the safety checks "just this once".
  6. Trying to win it back. The market doesn't know you lost and owes you nothing.

Only invest money whose total loss wouldn't change your life: that's the most likely outcome of any single position.

3

Crypto strategies

Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana and seven more coins · daily bars from Binance

What the strategies say today, coin by coin

loading history…
CoinPrice24hStrategy to followNowLevel that changes the decisionTrend
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Live simulator

test a strategy with paper money, at the current price

Stopped

The bot fetches the price from Binance at every interval and decides according to the chosen strategy.

BTC price
—
waiting
Portfolio value
—
 
Position
■ Cash
 
Trades
0
 
Fees paid
—
 
Step
0
 

Bitcoin price

one point per step

▲Buy ▼Sell
Press "Start" to begin collecting prices.

Portfolio value

Cash + the coin held, valued at the current price

No data yet.
Trade log (0)
StepActionPriceChangePortfolio
No trades yet.
Data table (0)
StepPriceChangeCashCoinPortfolio
No data yet.
Documentation · coin investment strategies (7 strategies + DCA)

What you see in the top table

For each coin, the page downloads the full daily history from Binance (Bitcoin and Ethereum since 2017, Solana since 2020, Sui since 2023), runs the seven strategies on it and tells you three things: which strategy worked best on that coin, what it says today (in the coin or in cash) and the price level that would change the decision. Everything is calculated in your browser when the page opens; there's no pre-built table that can go stale.

How the "strategy to follow" is picked

The only decision made from the data is the choice of strategy for each coin, so we make it with a written rule: the average of the return-to-risk ratio (Sharpe) over the full history and over the last two years. The full history alone would recommend a strategy that was good five years ago and bad since; the last two years alone would chase recent luck. Buy & Hold competes too: if nothing beats it, the right answer is "hold".

The strategy parameters are the classic ones, chosen in advance (the 200-day average, Turtle 55/20, 90-day momentum), not searched for on the data they're tested on. Any strategy can be tuned to look brilliant on the history it was tuned on.

When to check, and what to do then

Every strategy here decides on the daily close (00:00 UTC; the "Next check" box shows it in your local time). There's no point looking at them during the day: an afternoon drop that recovers by evening changes nothing. You check once a day, after the close, and do exactly what the "Next check" box says: if the close crossed the level, you act; if not, you do nothing until the next day.

What the test showed across all ten coins

The exact results are recalculated every time the page opens, but the pattern was clear in the initial test (node tools/invest_study.js):

  1. Turtle 55/20 breakout beat Buy & Hold on return-to-risk on 6 of 10 coins.
  2. Trend + 20% trailing stop reduced the maximum drawdown compared with Buy & Hold on all 10. It doesn't always earn more, but it almost always loses less.
  3. RSI in an uptrend failed on all of them: buying dips on daily bars catches falling knives in crypto.
  4. Weighted DCA (more when it's cheap) came out almost identical to plain DCA over four years. Discipline matters more than finesse.

And the most important lesson: on altcoins, even the trend strategies had drawdowns of 60–90%. A strategy reduces the loss, it doesn't remove it.

What each strategy does

Buy & Holdbenchmark

You buy once and hold. The reference line: any strategy that doesn't beat it isn't worth following.

Trend · 200-day average

In the coin while the price closes above the 200-day average, in cash when it closes below it. The best-known trend rule.

Golden cross 50/200

In the coin while the 50-day average is above the 200-day. Slower than the first one: it enters and exits weeks later.

Turtle 55/20 breakoutmost robust on return-to-risk

Buy when the price closes above the high of the last 55 days, sell when it closes below the low of the last 20. The "turtle traders" logic from the 1980s. It's in the market only a third of the time.

90-day momentum

In the coin while the price is above where it was 90 days ago.

Trend + 20% trailing stopmost defensive

Enter when the 20-day exponential average rises above the 100-day; exit when the price closes 20% below the highest price since entry or when the trend reverses, then wait 10 days. The daily version of the simulator's recommended strategy.

RSI in an uptrendfailed

Buy when RSI drops below 35, only above the 200-day average; sell at RSI above 65. Kept for comparison, to show that the "buy the dip" instinct isn't a strategy.

Periodic investing (DCA)

You deposit the same amount every week. Plain DCA buys with the whole amount, whatever the price does. Weighted DCA uses the Mayer multiple (the price divided by the 200-day average): below 0.8 you buy 2.5 times the amount, below 1 1.75 times, up to 1.5 the normal amount, up to 2.4 half, and above 2.4 (an overheated market) you don't buy and keep the money. Whatever isn't spent stays in cash, earning no interest, so both versions get exactly the same deposits.

The limits, stated openly

These are backtests on the past, executed at the open of the day after the signal with a 0.1% fee and no slippage. They tell you what would have happened, not what will happen. Nothing here is investment advice.

Documentation · the live simulator and its parameters (9 strategies tested on BTC)

The two parameters that decide everything

The threshold is the minimum move, in percent, that triggers an action. It's calculated as (current_price − previous_price) / previous_price × 100: above +threshold it buys everything, below −threshold it sells everything. Careful, it's a percentage, not a fraction: 0.05 means 0.05%. The original value 0.00005 meant 0.00005%, that is about 4 cents at a price of $78,000.

The fee is paid on each side of the trade: 0.1% when buying and another 0.1% when selling, so 0.2% round trip. Without fees, the original strategy shows +220%; with 0.02% it loses everything. A backtest without fees isn't optimistic, it's meaningless.

Windows are measured in bars, not in time

One bar = one polling interval. The simulator's parameters were found on 1-minute bars on Bitcoin, so they hold at a 60s interval. On the other coins it runs with the same parameters; to compare coins, use the daily table at the top, which is tested on each coin separately.

bars144028805760100802016043200
at 1 minute1 day2 days4 days7 days14 days30 days

Results on 180 days of BTCUSDT, 0.1% fee

Over the same period Bitcoin rose from $70,169 to $78,036 (+11.2%).

strategyreturnSharpemax drawdowntrades
Trend + trailing stop+29.7%2.1210.4%15
7-day momentum+26.0%1.859.3%11
Donchian breakout+24.6%1.917.8%16
EMA cross+22.8%1.7115.9%15
SMA cross+14.6%1.2317.3%45
Buy & Hold (benchmark)+11.1%0.7430.1%1
Z-score reversion+1.2%0.2314.4%77
RSI0.0%0.000.0%0
Original (per-tick threshold)−100.0%−432100.0%119,045

What each simulator strategy does

Trend + trailing stoprecommendedTrendWithStop(2880, 20160, 6.0)

Enters when the 2-day exponential average rises above the 14-day one. Exits when the price falls 6% below the highest price since entry, or when the trend reverses.

7-day momentumMomentum(10080, 4.0)

Stays in the coin only while the price is more than 4% above where it was 7 days ago.

Donchian breakoutDonchian(10080, 5760)

Buys at the high of the last 7 days, sells at the low of the last 4 days. The smallest maximum drawdown (7.8%).

EMA crossEmaCross(720, 20160, 0.5)

Long while the fast average is above the slow one, with a 0.5% band against whipsaws.

Buy & Holdbenchmark

Buys at the start and does nothing else.

Original (per-tick threshold)loses everythingTickMomentum(0.00005)

The bot's first version: buys after any uptick, sells after any downtick. It loses 100% at any realistic fee.

Six things to remember

  1. Costs decide, not prediction quality. The winning strategies win mainly because they trade less often.
  2. They don't beat Buy & Hold by predicting, but by being out of the market during crashes.
  3. In a smoothly rising market, Buy & Hold wins. The trade-off is real.
  4. A smaller maximum drawdown is a result, not a consolation prize.
  5. Any strategy can be tuned to look brilliant on the data it was tuned on. That's why the parameters are searched on the first 60% of the history and checked only once on the last 40%.
  6. These are backtests, not predictions.
4

Today's news

seven sources, grouped by story, ranked by popularity

Hot topics

words from the last day's headlines, from at least two outlets
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What's being written about

stories per coin, last three days

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How the news is picked and ranked

The sources

CoinDesk, Cointelegraph, Decrypt, The Block and Bitcoin Magazine, through their public RSS feeds, plus Google News for the mainstream press: a memecoin about a politician shows up first at Reuters, not in a crypto newsroom. They're all read in parallel every time the page opens, with a five-minute cache per source.

How popularity is measured

Headlines describing the same event are grouped into a single story, even when each outlet words it differently. A story rises in the list according to how many different outlets cover it and how fresh it is. A story written by eight outlets on the same day is news; one written by a single blog is an opinion.

What gets filtered out

Price pages dressed up as news ("price today", "what it will be worth in 2030"), "best crypto to buy now" articles and stories older than three days. The first two are advertising, not information.

The link with the radar

The hot topics are also used by the memecoin radar: a token carrying a distinctive word from one of the day's stories gets an "In the news" note on its card, with those headlines. A story is no substitute for liquidity and safety, so the note doesn't change the verdict; it's context, so you know why the token is trading.

The Fear & Greed Index

The alternative.me index, from 0 (extreme fear) to 100 (extreme greed), calculated from volatility, volume, social media and Bitcoin dominance. It's a market thermometer, not a signal: the market can stay in extreme greed for weeks on end.

2

Forex & indices

EUR/USD and DAX · daily bars since 1990 · a decision after every daily close

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Price, last year

daily closes and the 200-day average

Every strategy, tested

chosen on 1990–2015, judged on 2016–today · after spread and holding costs
StrategyNowSharpe 1990–20152016–today, per yearSharpe 2016–today Worst dropLast 2 yearsTrades · win rate
How the signals are made, and how honest they are

The data and the rules

Daily bars for EUR/USD and the DAX 40 from January 1990 to yesterday's close: about 9,300 trading days for the DAX and 9,900 for EUR/USD, through recessions, the euro crisis, COVID and two rate cycles. Every signal is computed on a daily close and executed at the next day's open, never at a price you couldn't have traded. Every entry and exit pays the spread (0.01% a side), and every day in a position pays the overnight financing a CFD charges (about 4% a year on the DAX, 1% on EUR/USD).

How the "strategy to follow" is chosen

The seven strategies use classic parameters fixed in advance (200-day average, 50/200 cross, Turtle 55/20, 90-day momentum, trend with a 3-ATR trailing stop, RSI(2) dip-buying), not values searched on the data. The one to follow is the best on 1990–2015 only; the table then shows what it did on 2016–today, years the choice never saw. That second number is the honest one.

What the tests say

EUR/USD: no classic strategy has a real edge. The best, 90-day momentum, made under 1% a year on 2016–today, and every trend rule hovers around zero. A currency pair has no natural direction, and that shows. DAX: the 200-day trend rule kept working on the unseen years, but buy and hold earned a little more since 2016; what the trend rule gives you is a much smaller worst drop (about 35% against 76%). Shorting the DAX is left out on purpose: betting against an index that rises over time lost money historically, and that was decided before looking at the results.

The ticket

When the chosen strategy is in a position, the card gives you the side, the entry (the current price), a protective stop two daily ATRs away and the size that loses 1% of your budget if the stop is hit. On forex and index CFDs that size is the position's notional value, so it uses leverage. The strategy's own exit rule (the level on the card) is what closes the trade; the stop is there for the day something goes very wrong. Check after the daily close at the time on the card, not during the day.

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Be aware: memecoins are highly volatile

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The radar's picks are a starting point, not a buy list. Before you buy any of the selected coins, write your own thesis for each one: why you're buying it, what would prove you wrong, and how much you're willing to lose.

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